Let’s begin by noting that Mark Andrews’ vertical pass numbers this season are as follows: 16 targets, 11 receptions for 224 yards and zero touchdowns. Divide that on a per game basis and Andrews averaged 1.1 receptions for 22.4 yards per game on vertical throws.
Andrews also didn’t do much on short passes from a yardage perspective, as he posted only 32 yards per game at that depth level.
The big issue from a fantasy perspective is that six of Lamar Jackson’s 10 short touchdown passes this season were thrown to Andrews. Jackson has only five games with 20+ points this year and two of those were in Weeks 4 and 7, both of which were contests where Andrews posted two short touchdown receptions.
Losing that production could hinder Jackson’s upside percentage, but let’s not forget that Baltimore still has Isaiah Likely on the roster. In 2022, Likely ranked fourth on the Ravens in short pass routes run (167) and third in targets (46), receptions (30) and receiving yards (237) at the short pass level. Likely also scored two short pass touchdowns, a total that was tied for second on the club and only one behind Andrews’ three.
This means Likely should be able to replicate much of the yardage that Andrews generated and should notch touchdowns at a reasonable clip.
If Likely can do that, Jackson will still see something of a production decline and maybe won’t be as likely (pun intended) to hit 20+ points as often, but the reality is Jackson leads the league in quarterback fantasy points on rushing plays and thus his fantasy value mostly goes as his rushing value goes.
Bottom line — Jackson is still a strong QB1 and has the capacity to post 20+ points, but games of that caliber may not be as frequent without Andrews.
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